Download PDF by Gann W.D.: Wall Street Stock Selector

By Gann W.D.

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And D. Lovallo, 1993, Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking, Management Science 39, 17–31. 684 HEATON Kamath, R. , 1997, Long-Term Financing Decisions: Views and Practices of Financial Managers of NYSE Firms, Financial Review 32, 331–56. Kaplan, S. , 1989, The Effects of Management Buyouts on Operating Performance and Value, Journal of Financial Economics 24, 217–54. Kaplan, S. , and R. S. Ruback, 1995, The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis, Journal of Finance 50, 1059–93.

Earnings can be managed by actually shifting income over time, which we label “direct management,” or by misreporting. A typical misreport, failing to mark down “stale” inventory or incurring extraordinary charges beyond what prudence requires, simply relocates an amount from one year to another. Such misreports must pass through the hands of accountants, who are reliable professionals. Accountants’ procedures prevent simple misreporting of earnings; indeed, only their oversight makes earnings reports meaningful.

The recent push in corporate governance circles for outside directors and outside chairmen of the board is consistent with this prescription. This also suggests that the most effective prescription for managerial optimism combines strong incentives with strong outside monitoring. In his study of Kohlberg, Kravis, and Roberts (“KKR”), for example, Anders (1992, p. 179) describes KKR’s role in monitoring managerial decisions, particularly to ensure that managers receive constant feedback against targets: Even the executives who prospered in KKR’s regimen knew that if their companies fell badly short of the bank-book projections, their wonderful rapport with the partners and associates of KKR could vanish.

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Wall Street Stock Selector by Gann W.D.


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