By Bertrand M. Roehner
What are the roots of the current monetary hindrance? The publication exhibits that the standards mostly pointed out (e. g. subprime loans, fall in housing costs) have happened long ago and for this reason can't account for the severity of the current situation. There has to be "something else". The research indicates that there has been a "phase transition" within the usa round 1975 which introduced the next adjustments: - The stagnation of genuine wages over the last 30 years and a parallel upward thrust in indebtment degrees. - The abrupt fall in unionization charges and within the variety of moves. - the improvement of tax havens which disadvantaged states of tax profit. - The globalization of economic transactions which hinders long term funding.
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Additional info for Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics
One major difficulty is the fact that the volatility depends not only upon the organization of the market but also upon the intensity of exogenous shocks. 3 lists some possible causes of price fluctuations. One simple observation can be made: since the volatility of banana prices is almost zero once seasonal fluctuations are discounted this means that both A and B factors are absent. 3 (endogenous dynamics) suppose that the commodity under consideration can be stored for a sufficiently long time and at fairly low cost.
Iii) Although the two curves differ in their details, their overall shape is similar: both the upgoing and the downgoing paths have the shape of a function of the form y = xO! (0: > 1). Since the vertical scale is logarithmic this means that the growth is faster than an exponential. This property is common to most wheat price peaks. It is precisely this similarity which leads to the conclusion that there must be a common mechanism. At the start of the peak there is usually an exogenous factor, but once started the bubble seems to have its own dynamics.
4 a Price of land in Egypt. Vertical scale: average price per square meter expressed in French francs; the data refer to sales made by the company of the Suez canal in the vicinity of Port-Said. The abrupt decline that occurred after 1907 accompanied a stock market crash in Alexandria: between April 1907 and February 1913 stock prices of real estate companies dropped by about 50 percent. In a sense this episode paralleled, though on a much smaller scale, the 1990 stock and property crashes in Japan.
Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics by Bertrand M. Roehner